The Characteristics of Pandemic Pathogens Report Released


One of the perennial questions I am asked is "What's next?" in regard to infectious disease threats. Well, yesterday my colleagues and I released the report of a project I led for over a year whose aim was to understand the traits and characteristics of pandemic pathogens. We approached this project with active minds trying to jettison reliance on list-based approaches that are incomplete and almost guarantee surprise outbreaks. 

We did not limit ourselves to viruses as we embraced microorganisms of all classes. We also sought to integrate knowledge of astrobiology, plant infections, amphibian infections, prions, and even the bacteria at the limits of the earth's atmosphere into our thinking.

In the final analysis, we deemed a respiratory spread RNA virus to be the most likely pandemic pathogen for several reasons that include the fact that simple public health measures are likely to control a respiratory pathogen and an RNA genome allows a lot of mutability. While everyone may jump to influenza with this type of answer, there is a whole host of other viruses in this category that are often neglected as pandemic pathogens and for which no antivirals or vaccines are available.

One of my personal strongest recommendations is to end the satisfaction many doctors have with just calling something a "viral illness" and leaving the diagnosis as non-specific as that. This wastebasket diagnosis might contain potential pandemic pathogens making their first forays into humans and it is incumbent upon physicians -- in an era when a plethora of diagnostic tools are available -- to try to come to a specific diagnosis. This is true whether one practices in a major developed world city or in a rural clinic in Africa. Specific diagnosis leads to situational awareness and underlies preparedness.

This project was the most enjoyable and fun endeavors I engaged in as it allowed me to immerse myself in infectious disease and think deeply and widely. I hope that others find the report of value and it serves to generate deeper analysis of this field. 

Here's a link to a quick video I did explaining the report.